Changes In Healthcare In The Next 10 Years – Ten years ago, in 2011, I gave my second TEDTalk, “The Future of Medicine? There’s an app for that”… in which I covered the convergence of accelerating technologies (faster, smaller, cheaper, better) and examples of the cutting edge and possibilities for the not-so-distant future of health and biomedicine. Much of what I described began to be integrated into clinical use or advanced significantly over the next decade, and in many cases was only further accelerated by the pandemic (as summarized in my 2021 TEDT talk, “How Covid-19 Transformed the future of medicine”).

As a bit of an ‘accidental futurist’, now looking to the decade ahead, I re-watched my 2011 TEDTalk for the first time in years. It prompted some reflections on where we’ve been, where we are ten years later, and some predictions about where health, medicine and technology might take us by 2031. As healthcare makes the leap from the 3rd to the 4th industrial age, the next ten years will make the last ten seem slow.

Changes In Healthcare In The Next 10 Years

Changes In Healthcare In The Next 10 Years

Below is a rough set of observations following the flow of my 2011 TEDT talk, where we are 10 years later, and predictions about where we might be a decade from now.

Expert Perspectives On Trends Driving Change In Healthcare

Of course, I’ll be completely off the mark on some predictions (but I hope we’re well into the everyday use of blockchain for privacy/security and still not stuck with outdated HIPAA laws and fax machines as the dominant ‘technology’ for transmitting health data in 2031! ).

I summarized some of the current challenges, opportunities, and emerging solutions in a 2019 cover story I wrote for National Geographic’s Future of Medicine issue, “Connected and High Tech: Your Medical Future.”

We still have a long way to go to effectively utilize many of these exciting and often exponential technologies and platforms. Technology alone is not enough, it must be aligned with incentives, payment models, local culture, workflow, social determinants, regulation and ethics and integration into medical education. Effective use of these solutions today and tomorrow has the potential to truly democratize health care, bring quality care at lower costs, and significantly improve access to prevention, care, healthcare, public and global health across the planet.

I started my 2011 TEDTalk by sharing the story of how I met a ‘distant cousin’ through our shared haplotype. In 2011, you could get a 23andMe SNP profile as consumer genomics emerged. In the past decade, millions have gained access to their own personal code, from discovering unknown siblings to researching genealogy and taking proactive action based on their genetic risks, to biohackers harnessing genetic insights from the crowd.

It Part Of Big Change Coming To Nursing

Today, a complete exome genome sequence costs ten times less than in 2011, down to $1000 (at twice the price of Moore’s Law). Clinical utility is catching up, with polygenic risk scores and population genetics increasing the need for services to help interpret results. By 2031, expect genome sequencing prices to be $100 or less, including those done with 3rd Generation/Long-Read Sequencing.

In addition to the genome, one can now obtain your microbiome (from the guttooral biome), proteome and now your ‘metabolome’ (via CGM disposable continuous glucose monitors). And of course, one “Digitome” from a wide range of wearable devices, and soon the more contextual “Sociome” will be available.

The next decade will see further significant integration and application of these multiple ‘Omes’. While big data from multi-omics may be the ‘New Oil’, it is the insights generated from analytics engines that analyze previously extracted data sets that are truly critical. In a decade, individuals will have regular access via the cloud to our individualized “Digital Twins” who, through AI-enhanced synthesis and integration of basic and dynamic information, will enable increasingly precise “predicalytics”… and modeling to virtually guide individualized “precision health” ‘ and prevention , diagnostics and adjusted and optimally selected therapies, for example in my field of oncology. Eric Topol covers it excellently in Natural Medicine on the Convergence of Human and Artificial Intelligence. (picture below).

Changes In Healthcare In The Next 10 Years

Ten years from now, in 2031, we’ll take much of what we use our smartphone for granted as being incorporated into our augmented reality world… we’ll probably be on iGlass version 8 by then… (Apple’s AR glasses are rumored to launch in 2022 as the areAR platform from Google), to the next generation consumer version of Microsoft Hololens with many other AR/VR and XR offerings that will be built into our contact lenses or our modern AR enhanced glasses. The nascent Metaverse will mature, and the ‘Med’averse will be home to elements of medical education, VR-based treatment, and even healthy social engagement.

Ways How Technology Has Changed Healthcare For The Better

Moore’s Law set in motion our increasingly digitized, connected, mobile and computer-driven world. The exponential trajectory has been maintained despite wars, depressions and pandemics. While a computer that fits on a silicon chip may soon be limited by physics, new forms of computing power are emerging, including quantum computing. Quantum computing has the potential to solve problems that simply cannot be solved by a classical computer. By 2031, it will likely begin to introduce profound new capabilities, from computing targeted designer drugs and biologics to understanding the terabytes and soon petabytes of health data generated by each of us. IBM has called this next period the ‘quantum decade’

In 2011, the first apps for using the phone as a diagnostic device became available (the iBGStar smartphone glucometer)… aside from the ability to email blood sugars, glucose data was essentially siled on the mobile device and challenging to effectively share with clinicians. In 2011, my friend Dr. Dave Albert had just demonstrated his brilliant AliveCor 2-Lead EKG invention. 10 years later, there are direct-to-consumer ads on CNN for the 6-lead Cardia, and their devices and software are doing 1,000 virtual EKGs a day, detecting atrial fibrillation, bradycardia, and more.

2021: Today, we can get a lot more out of our “medicalized smartphones,” including exponentially improved AI/ML-enhanced cameras that allow a “medical selfie” to detect vital signs, for performance analysis pioneered by Healthi.io, as well as enabling tracking and quantifying wound care (disclosure, I’m on the Healthi.io board). Smartphone microphones and speakers can be used to detect infections and use the ‘Voice as Biomarker’ to detect and measure neurological diseases, depression, anxiety, and more.

With Apple’s HealthKit on iPhones and the Common Healthplatform on Android, information from thousands of wearables, sensors, scales and more can be collected and shared. Researchers can build and anyone can apply to be part of a virtualized clinical trial through ResearchKit. The latest iOS15 allows data and insights to be shared with caregivers or transferred to the EMR for analysis and monitoring.

Pagb: Understand The Consumer Healthcare Market

2031: Wearables will continue to move beyond the wrist (and hopefully include >1 week battery life (one area that hasn’t advanced exponentially)… Next year we’ll see cuffless continuous blood pressure approved FDA patches and wrist monitors, and possibly the ‘holy grail’ of accurate, non-invasive continuous blood sugar monitoring. Increasingly, our wearables will be replaced by the ‘invisible’: an ambient sensor via the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) that ( with given permissions ) measures and makes sense of our digital exhaust, from vital signs to the sound of our voice to subtle changes in gait. Smart speakers and/or WiFi will bathe our living spaces in signals that measure the vitals of multiple residents. Of course, privacy concerns and questions data ownership must be carefully addressed.

Our mobile devices are powered by apps. In 2011, just 3 years after the launch of the iTunes App Store, there were about 30,000 health apps….in 2021 there are over 350,000, with more than 90,000 apps released last year alone. will be unsustainable, many of these apps touch little on health (for example, food and exercise tracking), while a growing subset are moving into real healthcare. The FDA has approved more than 100 applications including five FDA-approved for mental health. I expect consolidation in the future… more “One app to rule them all” platforms that are less fragmented and more integrated and optimized for users. needs, diseases, social determinants and beyond.

2011-era imaging was already impressive, with high-resolution CT/PET/MRI and 3D reconstructions. 2021 saw the advent of truly portable and relatively inexpensive MRIs (I recently had my brain scanned in 5 minutes while on a boat floating down the Hudson, with a Hyperfine MRI plugged into wall power). available for the rich (KBio, HLI and Prenuvo for example). Faster, cheaper, and AI-interpreted full-body scans will be prevalent by 2031, perhaps even available in health centers integrated into Walmarts, CVS Health Hubs, Boots Pharmacies and others.

Changes In Healthcare In The Next 10 Years

Similarly, with increasingly smaller and portable dimensions, ultrasound, limited to carts in 2011, has now reduced to AI-powered handheld versions such as the Butterfly, Clarius, and VScan. and remote regions at low cost. Startups like Kenya-based llara Health are using these and other diagnostic technologies to bring digitally enabled care across Africa where there is a lack of diagnostic capabilities.

How Has Healthcare Changed In The Last 10 Years?

2031: Diagnostics will become further AI-enhanced and portable (the “Digital Doctors” bag) will allow advanced diagnostics to be performed by a community health worker, sometimes guided by a remote physician, other times with interactive AI-driven adaptive protocols. Breakthrough new diagnostics like those from OpenWater (using new lasers,

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