“australian Dollar Forecast: Projecting Profit Potential In The Forex Market”

“australian Dollar Forecast: Projecting Profit Potential In The Forex Market” – Economists have a bleak outlook for the Australian dollar after the currency plunged to pandemic lows against the greenback.

The dominance of the US dollar has destroyed the world’s most traded currencies and roiled financial markets in 2022. This gave a tailwind to Australian businesses with offshore earnings, but raised import costs and made commodities a bear market.

“australian Dollar Forecast: Projecting Profit Potential In The Forex Market”

34 economists polled to see the Australian dollar hold US70¢ until the end of the year,

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The Australian dollar is expected to continue its steep decline in 2023, advancing to US70¢ by the June quarter.

34 economists polled expect the Australian dollar to hold US70¢ until the end of the year, which would equate to a modest annual increase.

Forecasts improved slightly from a September poll by the Financial Review, when respondents expected the currency to return to US69¢ by mid-2023.

The US dollar weakened against major currencies, including the Australian dollar, amid concerns that rising interest rates could push the US economy into recession.

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The Japanese yen rallied last month after the Bank of Japan shocked financial markets by loosening its grip on benchmark government bond rates, paving the way for a possible exit from decades of easy monetary policy.

The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, is now down 7.4 percent since October.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans raised the bank’s end-of-year forecast to US74¢, saying, “We haven’t counted enough on the market’s tendency to be precocious.

“Once headline inflation rates peaked in the US, markets factored in lower terminal federal funds rates – a reasonable response to sustained expected weakness in the US economy – and the move spilled over to Australia.”

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Year’s head of macro and strategy Tim Toohey gave the most bullish forecast, with the Aussie dollar rising to US76¢ by June and US79¢ by the end of 2023.

He joins AMP’s Shane Oliver who expects the Australian dollar to hit US75¢ “reflecting the downward trend in the currently overvalued US dollar, the Fed set to cut rates, and firmer Chinese growth helped by tougher commodity prices”.

Macroeconomics Advisory chief economist Stephen Anthony weighed on the Australian dollar, forecasting a fall to US61¢ by June. By the end of the year, he expects the currency to return to an epidemic low of US57¢, while panic in equity markets spills over into FX markets and the currency crashes to multi-decade lows.

Forecasts for the big four banks fall on either side of the median. The Commonwealth Bank’s Gareth Aird is on the lower end, predicting it will be closer to US67¢ by the end of the year.

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NAB’s Alan Oster claims the top spot, saying US75¢ is a realistic target as China moves towards living with COVID-19 and a devaluation of the US dollar.

Like most major currencies, the Australian dollar was hurt by the US dollar’s rally in 2022, as the Federal Reserve raced to raise interest rates to combat red-hot inflation.

In a historic show of strength from bond markets, the pound fell to a 37-year low against the dollar as the UK’s failed mini-budget put gilts in a tailspin. The euro was not much higher, falling below parity with the dollar for the first time in nearly 20 years as the war in Ukraine fueled an energy crisis.

ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga believes the “US dollar dominance” theme will wane in 2023 and global currencies will be more influenced by their domestic drivers.

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He predicted the commodity-linked Australian dollar would outperform the New Zealand and Canadian dollars on “strong fundamentals”, as China’s reopening, coupled with tight supply, suggested industrial metal prices would remain at higher levels.

“The Fed’s tightening outlook has become more nuanced, the European energy situation less dire. The UK’s fiscal position is on a less sustainable track and China appears to be moving away from its zero-covid position,” he said.

“As the widely expected US recession begins, we expect the dollar’s lopsided move to diminish in 2022, with non-USD currencies trading in line with their economic fundamentals.”

Emma Rappaport is co-editor of the Street Talk column. Prior to this, he was a market reporter for The Australian Financial Review. Connect with Emma on Twitter. Email Emma at emma.rapaport@ We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you consent to our use of cookies.

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The Australian dollar rose 2.6% against the US dollar from a monthly low, with the Aussie now reaching primary resistance on the back of a five-day advance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD chart Review this week’s strategy webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more

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Technical Outlook: Our bottom line in my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook noted that the Aussie shield has broken off support, favoring, “weakness fading to 6827/55 target while above this threshold.” The price reached this level on Friday after testing the AUD/USD long-term slope resistance earlier in the week. Initial daily support remains at 6827 supported by a 68-handle-wide bullish invalidation now raised to the monthly low-day close at 6760. A top breach from here reveals the next resistance objective at 6910 and a 61.8% retracement at 6927.

Note: A closer look at Australia’s price action shows that AUD/USD is trading within the limits of an upward pitchfork formation that spans the late August/September lows with prices trading just above the mid-line in New York. Looking for initial support at 6827/32 supported by 6803 – possible downside exhaustion/long-entry if both levels of interest are reached. Vulnerability, on a closer basis, will rule the current structure out of the picture. Primary resistance is now at 6880 with a breach at 50% retracement there exposing topside targets at 6911 and 6924/27. Keep an eye on the weekly opening-range that has formed just above the support – see the break here for guidance.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review B’s Fundamentals of Technical Analysis series on using a trading strategy.

Bottom line: An Australian dollar reversal is risky in the near term here. From a trading perspective, long-exposure is a good place to reduce/raise protective stops – look for a fatigue low/support before the low parallels our focus high while within this formation.

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