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“australian Economic Outlook: Impacts On Forex Profit Potential” – The IMF warns of a ‘rocky road’ ahead. Will Australia go into recession? The International Monetary Fund has released its latest World Economic Outlook, and the forecast is grim.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook predicts that global interest rates will not return to target until 2025. Source: Notícias
“australian Economic Outlook: Impacts On Forex Profit Potential”
The global economy is entering a “dangerous phase”, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning that high inflation, coupled with turmoil in the financial sector, could bring near-recession conditions around the world.
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In its latest global economic outlook, A Rocky Recovery, the IMF predicted that Australia’s GDP growth would slow to just 1.6% in 2023, followed by an increase of 1.7% in 2024.
Australia’s forecasts were slightly ahead of those for the US and Canada, while the UK economy is expected to shrink this year.
“This is largely a response to the rise in inflation that we’ve seen and the rise in interest rates that the RBA has responded with,” he told the News.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia will not “be immune to a global downturn”, but the country is on track to avoid a recession.
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“We’re in a better position than most countries because of lower unemployment, because of the prices we’re getting from our exports and some of the other advantages that we have,” he told ABC Radio on Wednesday.
Gross said that while there is “definitely a greater likelihood” of Australia slipping into a recession now than it was three months ago, he agrees it is unlikely.
“A period of weak growth … where the economy only grows slowly seems the most likely outcome,” he said.
“The unemployment rate is still very low… if a recession were to occur, we would expect it to increase substantially.
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Inflation is currently at 6.8% in Australia, with the IMF not predicting a return to the RBA target of between 2 and 3% before 2025.
Of the Reserve Bank and maybe a year from now interest rates will start to come down a little bit,” John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the School of Politics, Economics and Society at the University of Canberra told the News.
“But if inflation remains stubbornly high, the Reserve Bank will have to raise interest rates further and keep them high for longer.”
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“If the situation is as dire as the IMF thinks, it means the RBA will be less inclined to raise interest rates, and we could see some declines in the RBA cash rate sooner than expected,” he said.
Gross said recent data indicated that rents across the country were still rising “at an incredibly fast pace”.
“Even if you had a lease signed six months ago, when you renegotiate it six months from now, maybe there’s a good chance you’ll see a big increase in your rent,” he said.
“I think it’s going to be very difficult next year on the cost of living, just because of rent prices, even if oil prices end up getting a little bit cheaper.”
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Hakwins said the rise in rent prices is being driven largely by a shortage of available housing, not by landlords passing on interest rate hikes to their tenants.
“They might as well use that as an excuse, but essentially, landlords will raise the rent if the vacancy rate is low. If tenants have nowhere else to go, they’ll raise the rent, if the tenants can easily find another place, they won’t,” he said.
“The general rule of thumb is that a 3% vacancy rate is a reasonable kind of balance, but it’s much tighter than that across most of the country.”
Gross said the government should continue to implement the “anti-inflation policies that they have to try to reduce costs”.
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“Whether it’s capping gas prices — I think that’s a positive move by the federal government — and just not doing anything too crazy in the budget in terms of overstimulating the economy,” he said.
Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley said next month’s federal budget should include measures to help contain the impacts of inflation.
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Economic growth can be measured in “nominal” or “real” terms. Nominal economic growth refers to the increase in the dollar value of output over time. This includes changes in production volume and prices of goods and services produced. Economists usually speak of real economic growth – that is, an increase only in the volume produced, which removes the effect of price changes. This is because it better reflects how much a country is producing at a given point in time, compared to other points in time.
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To measure GDP each quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects data from households, businesses and government agencies. ABS then calculates GDP in three different ways, analyzing separately information on production (P), income (I) and expenditure (E). The three definitions of GDP are:
These are three different ways of estimating the same thing. In practice, different results can be obtained because there is never enough data to build a complete picture of the economy. Many economic activities need to be estimated and measurement errors arise. In Australia ABS and economists generally focus on the average of the three measures – GDP(A).
Calculating real and nominal economic growth can be demonstrated using the example of an economy that produces only one good – let’s say apples.
Assume that in year 1 the volume of apples produced was 100 kg and the price of apples was $2 per kg, so the total value of production was $200 (100 x $2). In year 2, 104 kg of apples were produced and the price was US$2.05 per kg, so the total production value was US$213.20 (104 x US$2.05).
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In this example, nominal GDP growth (6.6 percent) is higher than real GDP growth (4 percent) because it includes price increases over the period. (The sum of real GDP growth rates and prices is close to, but not exactly equal to, the nominal GDP growth rate.)
Although GDP is the main measure of economic growth, it does not capture everything that adds value to the economy. One example is that caring for children is not included in GDP if it is done by their parents (but it is if it is done by a paid child carer).
GDP does not capture broader aspects of the economic well-being of the country’s population. For example, if GDP increased by 2% in one year, but population grew by 4%, then the average GDP per person would have decreased. Likewise, GDP tells us nothing about how evenly national income is divided among the population. Income may have increased for everyone, or it may have become concentrated in certain groups.
Finally, there are things that increase GDP but do not improve the country’s situation. One example is the initial outlay to replace buildings and infrastructure after a natural disaster, which drives measures of economic growth.
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Aggregate demand (AD), like GDP(E), refers to the total level of spending in the economy. Consequently, when aggregate demand is measured, it is equal to GDP(E). Aggregate demand includes household spending (also called consumption, C), business and household investment (I),
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