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“australian Economic Reports: Data-driven Strategies For Forex Profit” – The May 2022 election heralded a change in Australia’s federal government, leading to an improvement in the ambition of its 2030 climate goal. The newly elected government moved quickly to update its NDC in June 2022, presenting to the UNFCCC a new target of 43% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 below 2005 levels, including LULUCF. The CAT has upgraded Australia’s overall rating to ‘Inadequate’ from ‘Highly Inadequate’.
While the new NDC target is a positive step, Australia will need to adopt more ambitious climate policies and take more action consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The new government has an opportunity to increase its climate action in the crucial period until 2030. To achieve this, the Albanian government must abandon its support for new fossil fuel projects, which will increase emissions, not they will go down
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On July 26, the Government decided to enshrine its goal in a bill presented to Parliament, which contains a clause that future goals must be a progression beyond current commitments. The bill needs the support of the Greens and the Independents to be approved by the Senate.
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With its new NDC target, Australia has improved its rating of its national efforts to “Nearly Sufficient”. Its overall rating is ‘Insufficient’ compared to its fair share of global action, as it needs to increase its contribution to climate finance. While this represents a significant improvement over the last target, for a compatible target of 1.5°C, Australia must adopt domestic reductions of at least 57% by 2030 and total share reductions fair, taking into account climate finance commitments, of at least 60% below 2005 emissions levels.
Australia has a net zero target by 2050, but the actions set out in the previous government’s long-term strategy will fall short of this target and fall short by a considerable margin. The Albanian government reiterated Australia’s commitment to the net zero goal by 2050 when it unveiled its new NDC. Modeling commissioned by the Australian Labor Party shows high levels of emissions, at least 60 MtCO
E – remaining in 2050, of installations covered by the safeguard mechanism, largely in the industrial sector. Other sectors of the economy will have to compensate and cope with the downsizing burden created by the industrial sector.
The CAT rates Australia’s public international climate finance contributions as “critically insufficient”. Australia’s climate finance contributions under the previous government have been very low compared to their fair share. To improve its rating, Australia must stop supporting fossil fuel-related activities overseas and increase the level of its international climate finance.
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The Albanian government has an opportunity to move on from the “gas-led” approach of the previous government. However, its recent support for new gas projects and continued support for fossil fuel projects indicates a discrepancy with its new NDC target. New gas and coal projects will significantly increase Australia’s mitigation burden and compromise its ability to meet the new NDC.
The models supporting the Albanian government’s policies suggest that high levels of carbon offsets, from the land use sector, should be used to “achieve” the targets, although it is very unlikely to effectively neutralize CO
The government is open to domestic or international carbon offsets, both of which have limitations that could undermine the level of ambition of Australia’s updated target. Domestic offsets have been criticized as scientifically flawed, as, for example, there is a high risk of reversal of carbon stored in land sector projects and there are serious doubts about the additionality of many of the land sector methodologies and kidnapping As a result of very serious criticism of the current compensation system as essentially fraudulent in many respects, the government has announced a review of its national carbon credit scheme which will be completed by the end of 2022.
Australia is suffering from an energy crisis related to high global energy prices, an aging fleet of coal-fired power stations and the previous government’s lack of investment in renewables, despite huge potential for solar and Australia’s wind power, and its renewable energy and green hydrogen export opportunities. The crisis has led to power supply problems, price hikes and blackouts in eastern states. Capacity reservation issues have been increasing in Australia’s east coast electricity system and require urgent attention.
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The Energy Security Board’s recommendations for a new mechanism to pay generators for capacity at certain times, including for aging coal plants, appear designed to shore up the coal fleet rather than speed a renewable transition. A more ambitious approach would encourage renewable energy, storage and responsive demand management to replace reliance on coal-fired generation.
Australia improved its 2030 ambition target, which has improved its overall rating from ‘Very Insufficient’ to ‘Insufficient’. An ‘Insufficient’ rating indicates that Australia’s climate policies and commitments are not compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Australia’s national emissions reduction target for 2030 is consistent with 2°C warming if all other countries followed a similar level of ambition. Under Australia’s current policies, emissions will continue to rise and will be consistent with more than 3°C warming if all other countries follow a similar level of ambition. To get a better rating, Australia needs to set a more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target, establish associated policies and provide funding to support others.
The newly elected government has an opportunity to move away from the “gas led” approach we have seen in recent years. The policies and action issue trajectory shown here do not include recent planned policy updates announced by the Labor government. The projections are based on current policies implemented by the previous Morrison government.
Australia’s GHG emissions have fallen due to a number of factors, but effective national climate policy is not one of them. The previous government’s baseline policy projections to 2021 show Australia’s current policies and actions are on track to be 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions, 15% below 2005 levels. Taking into account the rapidly decarbonising power sector, emissions from the rest of the economy are projected to rise to 9% above 2005 levels by 2030, reflecting the fact that the Morrison government had practically no policies implemented.
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While these projections show a decline in emissions in the power sector, while other sectors of the economy show a small increase over the next decade relative to 2021 levels. The decline in emissions from the energy sector is the result of a growing adoption of large-scale solar and renewable pipelines. States continue to increase renewable energy action and targets, while the federal government has no renewable generation or capacity targets. The CAT describes Australia’s policies and action as “inadequate”.
The Labor government’s support for the new Woodside Scarborough-Pluto gas project in Western Australia signals a discrepancy between its new 2030 target and its support for fossil fuel projects.
Based on a “gas recovery”, the federal government’s 2022-23 budget (set by the Morrison government) continues to support the gas industry, with a AUD 50 million grant to accelerate the development of gas infrastructure priority gas It also provides AUD 247 million to support increased private sector investment in technologies to increase the use of hydrogen, with no clear indication whether it will be “green” hydrogen that does not rely on fossil fuels.
In addition, this year’s federal budget under the Morrison government implicitly provided a further AUD$300 million to the National Water Network to support a “sustainable development” (industrial/LNG) “Middle Arm” precinct , in the Northern Territory. A further AUD 200 million is earmarked for Middle Arm Industries to develop infrastructure for an LNG supply chain. According to the IEA, the world already has enough oil and gas supplies and no new field development is needed if the world is serious about reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
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In October 2021, the Morrison government published the second iteration of its Low Emissions Technology Statement (LETS). Building on its LETS 2020 which predominantly discussed options, LETS 2021 contains details on programs, investments and actions without any additional commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The only addition to LETS 2021 is the introduction of low cost solar electricity. generation as another priority technology.
The newly elected government intends to reduce the emission baselines of the safeguard mechanism. However, the potential use of carbon offsets casts doubt on emissions reductions, and criticism from various sectors has led the government to establish a review of Australia’s carbon credit unit scheme, which must be completed within six months.
Australia ranks eighth in the world for per capita emissions, and first for per capita coal power emissions.
While the new federal government continues to rely on ineffective policies, action at the state level shows some climate leadership. Most states and territories, with the exception of Western Australia, have more ambitious emissions reduction and renewable energy targets.
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Australia’s 2022 NDC update raised the ambition of the target from ‘Insufficient’ to ‘Nearly Sufficient’. All countries must rapidly reduce their emissions collectively to reach net zero global emissions and limit warming to 1.5°C. Australia’s NDC is still higher than the modeled domestic pathway of 1.5°C and as such Australia has an internal gap between its target and a
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