“australian Forex Forums And Communities: Sharing Profit Insights” – I’m looking at another possible return to the AUD/USD today, but this time focusing on the weak Australian CPI.

Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at AUD/USD for a possible pullback ahead of the Australian CPI report. Be sure to check it out if it’s still a good game!

“australian Forex Forums And Communities: Sharing Profit Insights”

Canada’s headline May CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year from a previous reading of 4.4%, the lowest since June 2021.

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U.S. product orders May rebounded to 0.6% month-on-month after an earlier decline of 0.3%, with the headline reading up to 1.7% versus an average drop of 0.8%.

U.S. consumer confidence index. The CB jumped from 102.5 to 109.7 in June against a forecast reading of 103.9, the highest since early 2022

The Vice Minister of Finance of Japan’s Ministry of Finance Kanda says they are closely monitoring FX movements with a high degree of urgency.

Germany’s GfK consumer climate index fell from a low of -24.4 in May to -25.4 in June against an expected figure of -22.9

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Commodity currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi gave back their previous day’s gains and then some, as lower Australian CPI dampened hopes for another RBA hike in July (an outcome previously discussed in our Events Guide).

Other high-yielding currencies retreated slightly from risk flows as the yen and dollar bid up.

Threats of yen intervention as USD/JPY reaches the 145-150 area appear to be preventing the yen from falling as stronger than expected U.S. data. continuing to provide support for Treasury yields and the U.S. currency.

Central bank chiefs Lagarde, Ueda, Powell, and Bailey will speak at the ECB conference starting at 1:30 pm GMT.

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Use our Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the price action of the forex market! 🔥 🗺️ AUD/USD: 15 minutes

AUD/USD fell to the floor around .6670 and is now in a reversal mode after the latest decline.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the old support area is divided by the 50% to 61.8% levels, which is just above S1 (.6660).

A deep correction may even find sellers at the 38.2% Fib near the .6650 psychological sub-sign. If any of these holds as a ceiling, AUD/USD could return to swing lower again.

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On the other hand, a strong increase in risk-taking could push the pair back above the Fibs and into a swing high corresponding to R1 (.6720).

Better keep your ears to Fed head Powell’s remarks during the ECB Forum when trading this dollar pair!

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World wheat prices rose after Russia terminated a grain deal with Ukraine, and warned that it would treat ships bound for Ukrainian ports as military targets.

U.S. building permits for June: 1.44M (forecast of 1.46M; previously revised to 1.5M); housing starts decreased by -8.0% m/m but better than expected and still at pre-crisis levels.

US EIA weekly oil inventories for the week ending July 14, 2023: -71M barrels to 457.4M barrels, still above the five-year average for this time of year.

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Japan posted an annual trade surplus for the first time in 23 months as exports grew 1.5% year-on-year while imports fell 12.9% in June.

The PBoC set its daily USD/CNY correction below 7.15, about 680 pips stronger than estimates and the biggest since November.

The PBoC raised the benchmark for cross-border corporate financing under its prudential assessments (MPA) to 1.5 from 1.25, allowing companies to borrow more abroad based on their assets.

China Development and Reform Commission Deputy Director Li Chunlin said two new policies to support non-state enterprises will be launched soon.

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Australia added 32.6K jobs in June vs. 15K expected, 76.6K previously. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.6% to 3.5% while the participation rate decreased by 0.1% to 66.8%.

NAB Australia’s quarterly survey showed business confidence rising 1pt to -3 while business conditions fell 8 points to +9 as businesses were “largely managed” in Q2.

Switzerland’s trade surplus widened from 4.4B CHF to 3.3B CHF in June as exports fell by 1.7% m/m while imports grew by 3.7%.

German producer prices rose 0.1% y/y in June – the lowest rate since November 2020 – versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% y/y in May

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The Australian dollar was the market’s biggest mover earlier today as Australia’s strong employment data and the Chinese government took steps to stimulate its economy.

Australia’s stronger-than-expected labor market numbers give the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) room to raise its interest rates higher if needed.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) (a) keeping the USD/CNY reference rate lower than expected and (b) easing its rules to allow more capital inflows will stimulate economic activity in the largest trading partner of Australia.

The AUD, which had been trading near its U.S. session lows, was poised to gain ground before Australian jobs data pushed it to fresh intraday highs.

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Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the price action of the forex market! 🔥 🗺️ AUD/CAD: 15 minutes

AUD/CAD, which was chillin’ near its intra-week highs, jumped to the .8980 area before taking a breather.

Notice that AUD/CAD finds some support at today’s R1 (.8960) Pivot Points. At the same time, it creates a possible flag pattern on a 15-minute time frame.

The pair may find the .9000 psychological handle or the previous .9020 highs before enough sellers enter.

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