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Long-term Investment Strategies In Forex For Sustainable Profits – The Asymmetric Effects of Extreme Climate Risk Perception on Coal Futures Return Dynamics: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-In-Quantiles Tests
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Long-term Investment Strategies In Forex For Sustainable Profits
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By Ikhlaas Gurrib Ikhlaas Gurrib Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1, * , Firuz Kamalov Firuz Kamalov Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 2 , Olga Starkova Olga Starkova Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1, Adham Makki Adham Makki Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 3 , Anita Mirchandani Anita Mirchandani Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1 and Namrata Gupta Namrata Gupta Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 4
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Received: 17 March 2023 / Revised: 19 April 2023 / Accepted: 26 April 2023 / Published: 1 May 2023
Despite a significant increase in global clean energy investments, as part of the decarbonization process, it remains insufficient to meet the demand for energy services in a sustainable manner. This study investigates the performance of sustainable energy equity investments, with a focus on environmental markets, using monthly equity index data from August 31, 2009 to December 30, 2022. The main contributions of our study are (i) an assessment of the performance of trading strategies based on the trend, momentum and volatility of Ecological Indices (EO) and Ecological Technologies (ET); and (ii) a comparison of the performance of sustainable stock index investments to fossil fuel-based and major global stock indices. Market performance assessment based on technical analysis tools such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Average True Range (ATR) is captured using the Sharpe and the Sharpe per trade. The analysis is divided by regional, sector and global EO indices, fossil fuel indices, and the key global stock market indices. Our findings reveal that an impulse-based strategy performed best for the MSCI Global Alternative Energy index with the highest excess return per unit of risk, followed by the fossil fuel-based indices. A trend-based strategy worked best for the MSCI Global Alternative Energy and EO 100 indices. The use of volatility-based information gave the highest Sharpe ratio for EO Europe, followed by the Oil and Gas Exploration and Production industry, and MSCI Global Alternative Energy. We further find that a trader relying on a system that simultaneously provides movement, trend or volatility information would produce positive returns only for the MSCI Global Alternative Energy, S&P Oil and Exploration & Production industry, NYSE Arca Oil and FTSE 100 indices. . Overall, despite the superior performance of the MSCI Global Alternative Energy index when using momentum and trend strategies, most region and sector EOs fare poorly compared to fossil fuel based indices. The results indicate that existing oil prices continue to allow fossil fuel-based equity investments to outperform most environmentally sustainable equity investments. These findings support that sustainable investments, on average, have yet to show consistent superior performance over non-renewable energy investments, which points to the need for sustained, rigorous and accommodating regulatory policy actions by government bodies to reorient significant capital flows towards sustainable equity. investments
The United Nations progress report on the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) concluded that, in relation to affordable and clean energy, the current progress made is lacking. While the total renewable energy consumption increased by a quarter between 2010 and 2019, the renewable energy consumption represented only 17.7% of the total energy consumed in 2019 [1]. COP27 held in November 2022 acknowledged that climate change is a common concern for humanity [2]. More importantly, it underscores an urgent need to address the intertwined global crises of climate change and biodiversity loss in the broader context of achieving the SDGs, including the critical importance of protecting, conserving, restoring and sustainably using nature and ecosystems for efficient and sustainable. climate action Global economic leaders have recognized that the effects of climate change are exacerbating the global energy and food crises, and vice versa, especially in developing nations. In addition to establishing a fund for loss and damage to address devastating economic and non-economic losses such as forced displacement and impacts on cultural heritage, human mobility, and the lives and livelihoods of local communities, COP27 emphasized an urgent call for rapid and sustained. reductions in global greenhouse emissions. In particular, it emphasized the value of encouraging a clean energy mix, including renewable and low-emission energies, as part of the gradual transition process to cleaner and more sustainable energy.
Global energy investment was expected to rise by nearly 8.5% to USD 2.391 trillion in 2022, a level that is well above pre-COVID-19 levels [3]. The main contributor remains the power supply sector, in advanced economies, Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE), and China, with all three contributors witnessing increasing energy production investments overall post-COVID-19. Despite an increase in investments in clean energy from USD 1.1 trillion to USD 1.4 trillion during 2019-2022, investments in fossil fuel supply, represented by oil, gas, and coal, account for almost 97% of investments in total fuel supplies worldwide, a percentage that has barely changed as of 2019 [3]. Investment in coal, oil, gas and low-carbon fuel supply is the only area that has remained below levels seen prior to the 2019 coronavirus pandemic. Alternatively stated, the most notable transition to cleaner energies is in the electricity sector with continued growth of renewable energy, where renewables, grids and storage currently represent more than 80 percent of the total electorate investment.
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However, global clean energy investments still fall short of meeting the increased demand for energy services in a sustainable manner [3]. Clean energy spending in EMDEs excluding China in 2022 is still at 2015 levels, with various government entities being saddled with higher borrowing costs due to worsening economic conditions, resulting in a dampened ability to finance energy companies. This has resulted in most increases in renewables, grids and storage occurring in places other than developing economies. It has led to reduced sales of clean energy products such as Electric Vehicles (EVs), with more than 90% of public spending on EVs systems occurring in the United States, China, and Europe [3]. More importantly, poor nations with a lack of accommodating community policies face the possibility of energy poverty, where about 90 million people in Africa and Asia cannot afford their basic energy needs.
The situation is further exacerbated by Europe’s attempts to reduce its dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal supplies following the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, global inflationary pressures and volatile energy prices. All these external factors add to the existing pressure for investors to consider green energy investments, especially in less attractive EMDEs [3]. While higher energy prices in 2022 raise the net profits of oil and gas producers, nearly 50 percent of the additional $200 billion in capital investments in 2022 would be absorbed by higher costs, instead of increasing energy supply capacities or future investments. . These rising costs are caused by various factors, including a limited market of specialized labor, supply chain pressures (eg, the shortage of semiconductors and uncertainty of car manufacturers to meet the demand of electric vehicles), the effect of higher energy prices on cost. from production of raw materials such as cement and steel, all of which ultimately translate into a total consumer energy bill exceeding USD 10 trillion in 2022 [3].
Given the uncertainty about the long-term outlook for oil demand, higher investments in oil are not sustainably warranted, supported by the refining sector, which had its first reduction in global refining capacity in 2021. Similarly, high prices call into question the long-term outlook for gas demand, especially in price-sensitive developing countries, where new gas-fired capacity was the lowest in fifteen years. With climate-friendly corporations delivering a higher return on investments, complemented with a lower cost of financing, financial markets have also evolved in the last decade, by (i) introducing investment opportunities through the increase of new environmentally friendly assets or financial products; (ii) and creating a paradigm shift between
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