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“seasonal Factors In The Australian Forex Market: Adapting Strategies For Profit” – More than a third of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week.
Analysts at Bank of America said 27 of the companies that reported first-quarter earnings beat their earnings per share expectations, the best start to a season since 2012.
“seasonal Factors In The Australian Forex Market: Adapting Strategies For Profit”
However, despite a promising start to the reporting season, the S&P 500 was lower last week (and has been bearish since Monday morning). According to Business Insider, this could be due to several factors:
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→ an increase in the risk of default on the federal debt affects stock market prices. The value of CDS (insurance against default) will break multi-month highs.
Also, on the technical side, note the inhibitory effect of the resistance line (1) 4, 170, which we have shown several times. If this week’s reports turn out to be disappointing, it could lead to a bearish break of the median line (shown in blue) of the current channel, opening the possibility of another drop to its lower boundary (2).
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You’ve probably heard that trading is risky and that traders often make stupid mistakes. , we know that regardless of your level of experience, there are many questions that arise when trading. In this article, we will discuss trading in general
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The AUD/USD currency pair in Forex belongs to the category of specialties. However, novice traders prefer the classic EUR/USD or British Pound and Japanese Yen. One reason for this is in the background of the news. The media actively discuss the news in the American and European markets, while there is little information about Australia. The country hardly participates in world geopolitical events, so predicting the Australian dollar is relatively easy. In this review, you will learn about the peculiarities of trading AUDUSD: you will know what factors affect the exchange rate, what are the advantages of trading with the Australian dollar, how to trade the pair well on the Forex market, and what strategies are most suitable for it.
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Since 2000, the Australian currency has slowly but surely strengthened against the US dollar. By 2008, the Australian dollar was worth almost 1:1. But the global crisis of 2008 hit the Australian economy much harder, and the national currency depreciated by almost 2 times against the US dollar.
Parity was eventually restored and between June and July 2011, one AUD was equal to 1.1 US dollars. But Australia did not last long at the top: towards the end of 2013, the AUD fell below the US dollar, after which it began a long downward movement with a fairly deep upward correction. In March 2020, the Australian economy hit a 20-year historic low amid challenges related to the pandemic and natural disasters.
Many beginners choose to start trading EUR/USD in Forex. This is partly justified because the pair reacts sharply to the news and allows traders to make money during the day. AUD/USD has a more stable movement, so it is better for long-term trading strategies.
Over the past few years, the AUD/USD exchange rate has come under strong pressure from external fundamental factors that primarily affect the weakening and strengthening of the US dollar:
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Both countries have their own motivations for strengthening or weakening the national currency. A strong currency is disadvantageous for exporters, but a weak exchange rate also has its drawbacks. The AUD/USD chart is almost halfway between ten-year highs and lows and is moving cyclically.
Australia is a relatively quiet country geopolitically and economically, so the AUD/USD currency pair does not experience sudden price spikes. As the leading sectors of the country’s economy are the materials sector and the service sector, the exchange rate of the Australian currency is largely dependent on global supply and demand for raw materials and fundamentals.
The economic calendar is useful for keeping track of Australian and US news. News from Europe can have an indirect effect on the exchange rate, but their influence is weak.
The optimal time for trading in Forex is the opening of the London and American sessions. This is where you get the greatest trading volume and volatility. These are the time slots from 07.00 to 08.00 and from 12.00 to 15.00.
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Note that the time shown is GMT. Calculate your time based on the time zone of your location. Second point: these periods are indicative and do not take into account seasonal savings. Actual volatility can depend on any number of fundamental factors.
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AUD/USD is a major currency pair, so it is often compared to currency pairs in the same category. The main characteristics for comparative analysis are spread and swap levels, liquidity, volatility and correlation with other currency pairs.
The pair has the narrowest spread, second only to EUR/USD and USD/JPY. This is partly due to the pair’s popularity among professional traders: large trading volume ensures a tight spread.
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The swap is negative for both long and short positions, so the carry trade strategy will not work on this pair. Swap is less for short positions.
It is difficult to compare the liquidity of the majors because they are all highly liquid assets, as evidenced by, among other things, narrow spreads and non-slippage.
The AUD/USD chart shows the most significant correlation with the NZD/USD chart. The positive correlation is due to the close proximity of Australia and New Zealand and similar economic structures. In both charts, in most cases, the direction of the price movement coincides with the depth of the oscillations. In the long term, the volatility of both pairs is almost the same.
AUD/USD is also correlated with AUD/CAD due to the fact that the currencies of Australia and Canada are commodity currencies. But AUD/USD has a flat pattern, while AUD/CAD has sharp swings.
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Some Forex sources note the AUD/USD correlation with the gold chart. There is indeed little similarity: the direction of movement of both assets is often the same, but the similarity ends there. AUD is a currency, gold is a metal and a safe asset. They have different influencing factors that determine the volatility and duration of the trend.
The best tool for tracking correlation is a calculator. For better objectivity, set the largest possible comparison period in the settings.
The AUD/USD pair has high volatility in the long term. This means that on daily timeframes there are higher waves that are weakly indicated on the price chart in the short term. Below are tables with volatility values for different time frames.
These charts show that AUD/USD volatility is among the highest among major currency pairs. But in the long term, although the volatility of AUD/USD is higher than the volatility of the classic EUR/USD pair,
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